It has been five years since Andy Roddick cradled the U.S. Open cup during that short window between Sampras’ retirement and Federer’s rise. In fact, it has been five long years since any American man has won any Grand Slam.

It seems like long odds that Roddick or James Blake or any of the other 17 American men in the tournament will break that streak this year, but I think Blake has the best chance based on the draw.

Roddick, seeded eighth, has a tough draw with the Magician, Fabrice Santoro, in the first round. This will be a big night match and could spell trouble for Roddick. He has a 2-1 record against Santoro, but the last time they played—a match in Paris on indoor carpet last fall—Santoro won in three sets.

If Roddick wins his first round, he could play the dangerous Latvian Ernests Gulbis, a French Open quarterfinalist earlier this year, looming in the second round. Gulbis is ranked 40^th, but has a big game and potential to win. Roddick has lost to lesser players than Gulbis this summer.

Blake, seeded ninth, faces fellow American Donald Young in the first round, certain to be another night match in the Ashe Stadium. Blake has a much better draw than Roddick. If successful in early rounds, Blake is on a track to meet the new world No. 1 Rafael Nadal in the quarters.

Don’t count Blake out. He recently beat Federer in the Olympics, and he beat Nadal in 2005 when they last met in Flushing Meadows. (He has lost to Nadal in three sets twice this year, but has a 3-2 career record against him.) If any American is going to make a run deep to Super Saturday or beyond, my money is on Blake.