The key to the U.S. upsetting Spain on their home red dirt in a Madrid bullfighting ring will not be the seemingly impossible task of knocking off world No. 1 Rafael Nadal, the reigning king of clay.   The key for the U.S. team — acknowledged underdogs despite being the 2007 defending Davis Cup champions — is for Andy Roddick and substitute Sam Querrey to beat Spain’s second best player, David Ferrer, and rely on the Mike Bryan and Mardy Fish (a last-minute sub for Bob Bryan) to hold the doubles line.  If the U.S. can beat Ferrer twice and get a doubles win, they can slip out of Spain with a 3-2 victory.

Past matches don’t provide much guidance for what might happen in the Ferrer meetings.  Ferrer is 3-2 against Roddick, but they have never played on clay, and Ferrer and Querrey have never played on any surface.  Nadal, on the other hand, is 3-2 against Roddick, including a brilliantly played, four-set win in the 2004 Davis Cup final on his home clay in Seville.  Roddick did beat Nadal in straight sets earlier this year on hardcourts in Dubai, but clay is an entirely different story.  Nadal is 2-0 against Querrey, although Querrey pushed the tired Spaniard on hard courts in the fourth round of the U.S. Open — but, again, the New York hardtop is a long way from red dirt in Spain where Nadal will be almost unbeatable.

But Davis Cup is a team competition after all, and Nadal is only one man of four.  The Spaniards most likely will play their doubles team of Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco in doubles.  (In 2004, the Bryans annihilated Tommy Robredo and Juan Carlos Ferrerro, the only meaningful U.S. win on the clay.)  It would be interesting to see Nadal take the doubles court on Saturday, but he has had a grueling year with two Grand Slam wins and the Olympic gold medal and will most likely rest.

If Ferrer wins on Friday or Mike Bryan and Fish don’t win the doubles, you can all but write off the Americans for 2008.  Whatever happens, the matches in the 23,000-seat Plaza de Toros Los Ventas, a storied bullfighting ring, will be a spectacle to see.

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